Issue · Oil and shipping shock since February 28, 2026

Strait of Hormuz closure

Foe

About 20% of global oil supply affected. IMF assumes gradual reopening from March 2027; EM inflation projected at 5.7% in 2026.

Role: Oil and shipping shock since February 28, 2026
Type: Issue
Assessment: Foe, since 30 Oct 2026
Last revised: 30 Oct 2026
Sources: 3

Our assessment

About 20% of global oil supply affected. IMF assumes gradual reopening from March 2027; EM inflation projected at 5.7% in 2026. Oil exporters outside the Gulf, such as Nigeria, gain.

Connections

ListedNigeriaboosts exports
FriendDangote RefineryPetrol exports up sixfold in H1 2026
FoeSovereign debt and the Common Frameworkworsens
FriendAjay BangaUp to $100B over 15 months
ListedSaudi Aramcoexposed to

Assessment history

2026-10-29File opened from the research dataset.

Corrections

No corrections have been made to this case file.