Friday 30 October 2026 The money behind public deals, and the press that covers them
The Board82 case files, last updated 30 Oct
Case files

The Board

A file on every party these deals run through. What it did, when, what that rests on, and every change we have made to the assessment since the file was opened.

Assessment
Type
Case file 0130 Oct 2026
Friend Person · President, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (since January 16, 2026)

Zou Jiayi

Took over from founding president Jin Liqun; first year built around a member listening tour and infrastructure delivery.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0230 Oct 2026
Mixed Person · President of China

Xi Jinping

Architect of the Belt and Road Initiative, China's largest lending channel to the Global South; China also runs rare-earth export controls and now.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0330 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Washington, DC

World Bank Group

Largest multilateral development lender; scaling crisis finance for the oil shock and moving toward ending lending to China.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0430 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · Trade policy

US tariffs

Oxford Economics found the tariffs hit EMs harder than developed markets.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0530 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · 1% excise on cash remittances, from January 1, 2026

US remittance tax

Raises costs for senders to Mexico, India, the Philippines and Central America.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0630 Oct 2026
Mixed Institution · US central bank

US Federal Reserve

US rates and the dollar set EM financing costs; rates held at 3.50–3.75% through early 2026.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0730 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · US government investment arm

US Development Finance Corporation

Reauthorized through 2031 with its cap raised from $60 billion to $205 billion, with new authority in energy and critical minerals.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0830 Oct 2026
Listed Company · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

TSMC

About 15% of the MSCI EM Index alone (June 30, 2026), more than all of India's constituents combined; the AI capex cycle runs through it.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 0930 Oct 2026
Foe Outlet · US; #20 of 20 (47%)

The Washington Post

Lowest overall, lowest on topic diversity (29%) and lowest on context (69%).

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1030 Oct 2026
Foe Outlet · US; #19 of 20 (48%)

The Wall Street Journal

Covered the fewest African countries of any outlet (31%).

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1130 Oct 2026
Foe Outlet · US; #18 of 20 (51%)

The New York Times

One of three US outlets at the bottom of the index.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1230 Oct 2026
Friend Outlet · UK; #1 of 20 on the Global Media Index for Africa (63%)

The Guardian

Top overall score, and top on diversity of sources (62%) and topics (57%).

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1330 Oct 2026
Mixed Outlet · UK; 52% overall

The Economist

Lowest of the 20 outlets on stereotype avoidance (80%).

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1430 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Largest MSCI EM country weight

Taiwan

About 25% of MSCI EM (May 2026), driven by semiconductors.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1530 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · Oil and shipping shock since February 28, 2026

Strait of Hormuz closure

About 20% of global oil supply affected. IMF assumes gradual reopening from March 2027; EM inflation projected at 5.7% in 2026.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1630 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · Restructuring architecture

Sovereign debt and the Common Framework

EMDE public debt projected to reach 84% of GDP by 2031. Restructurings are getting faster but still take years.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1730 Oct 2026
Listed Country · About 19% of MSCI EM

South Korea

AI memory demand lifts its index weight; US exports are a large share of GDP.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1830 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · Multilateral governance

South Africa's G20 exclusion

First exclusion of a member by a G20 host; Africa's only member seat is empty for 2026.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 1930 Oct 2026
Listed Country · BRICS member; excluded from 2026 G20

South Africa

Sitting out G20 under the US presidency.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2030 Oct 2026
Listed Company · Angola's state oil company

Sonangol

Holds 10% of the Cabinda refinery.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2130 Oct 2026
Listed Company · South Korean memory-chip maker

SK Hynix

Largest constituent of the MSCI EM ex China index (9.57% capped weight, May 29, 2026); beneficiary of AI-related memory demand.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2230 Oct 2026
Friend Person · President, African Development Bank Group (since September 1, 2025)

Sidi Ould Tah

Elected May 29, 2025 with 76% of shareholder votes; former head of BADEA (2015–2025).

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2330 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Common Framework case

Senegal

US Treasury calls its restructuring a model and wants it finished in under a year.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2430 Oct 2026
Mixed Person · US Treasury Secretary

Scott Bessent

Kept the US in the IMF and World Bank and backed a $20 billion Argentina swap, but presses the banks off climate finance and toward oil and gas; skipped.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2530 Oct 2026
Listed Company · Saudi state oil company

Saudi Aramco

Top-ten constituent of MSCI EM ex-Israel; exposed to the Strait of Hormuz closure on both price and shipping.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2630 Oct 2026
Listed Country · BRICS member; IMFC chair

Saudi Arabia

Hosted the IMF's AlUla EM conference; growth hit by the Gulf war.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2730 Oct 2026
Listed Journalist · The Rio Times

Samuel Ncube

Reported (August 26, 2026) that Angola awarded the $442 million Capanda works to a Gemcorp-linked consortium without open tender, raising transparency.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2830 Oct 2026
Friend Outlet · UK; #3 of 20 (60%)

Reuters

Among the top four outlets for balanced Africa coverage; deep correspondent network in Luanda, Nairobi and Lagos.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 2930 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Official creditor group

Paris Club

Its 2025 report called for a faster Common Framework; Ghana, Zambia and Chad have largely completed restructurings.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3030 Oct 2026
Foe Institution · 34 traditional aid donors

OECD donors (DAC)

Official development assistance fell 23.1% in 2025, the largest drop on record, with a further 5.8% decline projected for 2026.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3130 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Oil exporter, now fuel exporter

Nigeria

Gains from high oil prices and Dangote refinery exports during the Hormuz disruption.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3230 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Shanghai; founded by BRICS

New Development Bank

Expanding local-currency lending; India is one of its largest borrowers.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3330 Oct 2026
Listed Company · South African tech investor (Tencent stake via Prosus)

Naspers

Top-ten constituent of MSCI EM ex-Israel.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3430 Oct 2026
Listed Person · Prime Minister of India

Narendra Modi

Hosted the 18th BRICS Summit (New Delhi, September 12–13, 2026), which adopted the New Delhi Declaration.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3530 Oct 2026
Listed Company · Index provider; MSCI Emerging Markets Index

MSCI

Its EM index returned 34.36% in 2025 (USD gross).

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3630 Oct 2026
Friend Journalist · Editor, Semafor Gulf

Mohammed Sergie

Broke the Imbono spinout (February 3, 2026) in a favorable piece built largely on the company's own framing.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3730 Oct 2026
Listed Person · Saudi Finance Minister; Chair, IMFC

Mohammed Al-Jadaan

Chairs the IMF's steering committee and co-hosted an IMF emerging-markets conference in AlUla, February 2026.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3830 Oct 2026
Listed Journalist · Expansão (Angola); Reuters Luanda correspondent

Miguel Gomes

Reported (September 8, 2026) that diesel made up only about 14% of Cabinda refinery output since commercial launch, with most product exported.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 3930 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Largest US remittance recipient

Mexico

Projected to lose over $1.5 billion a year in formal remittances from the US 1% remittance tax.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4030 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · How coverage feeds borrowing costs

Media framing risk premium

Africa No Filter estimates up to $4.2 billion a year in excess interest.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4130 Oct 2026
Friend Person · Emerging-markets investing pioneer (1936–2026)

Mark Mobius

Credited with bringing EM equities into the mainstream at Templeton and later Mobius Capital Partners. Died in Singapore on April 15, 2026.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4230 Oct 2026
Foe Person · US Secretary of State

Marco Rubio

Announced South Africa would not be invited to G20 events during the 2026 US presidency; Poland invited instead.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4330 Oct 2026
Listed Person · President of Brazil; re-elected October 25, 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Won the runoff with about 51.8% for a fourth term starting January 5, 2027; his opponent is seeking to annul the result.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4430 Oct 2026
Listed Journalist · Reuters

Libby George

Reported the Gemcorp and Fundo Soberano de Angola infrastructure fund (December 9, 2025) in straight wire style.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4530 Oct 2026
Friend Person · Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Kristalina Georgieva

Leads the EM lender of last resort; the October 2026 WEO under her tenure projects EMDE growth of 3.7% in 2026 vs. 2.1% for advanced economies.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4630 Oct 2026
Mixed Person · Chair, US Federal Reserve (sworn in May 2026)

Kevin Warsh

Markets read his hawkish, inflation-first tone as holding US rates steady through 2026–2027 and supporting the dollar, which tightens conditions for.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4730 Oct 2026
Listed Person · President of Argentina

Javier Milei

Entered 2026 with a midterm win and a $20 billion US swap; growth forecasts since cut to about 2.7% for 2026, with re-election due October 2027.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4830 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Washington, DC

International Monetary Fund

October 2026 WEO: EMDE growth 3.7% (2026) and 4.4% (2027); EMDE public debt projected to rise from 74% to 84% of GDP by 2031.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 4930 Oct 2026
Listed Country · 2026 BRICS chair

India

IMF projects 7% growth in FY27 and FY28, the fastest among large EMs; second-largest destination for US remittances.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5030 Oct 2026
Listed Institution · 2026 presidency: United States

G20

US presidency narrowed working groups and excluded South Africa; UK takes over for 2027.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5130 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Angola's sovereign wealth fund

Fundo Soberano de Angola

Seeding $50 million, potentially rising to $200 million, in the Abu Dhabi-based Pan-African Infrastructure Fund with Gemcorp (announced December 9, 2025).

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5230 Oct 2026
Friend Journalist · Forbes África Lusófona

Francisco de Andrade

Covered the Cabinda refinery inauguration (September 3, 2025) as a strategic Gemcorp bet, highlighting its private financing and reduced import dependence.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5330 Oct 2026
Foe Issue · ODA −23.1% in 2025

Foreign aid collapse

US aid fell 56.9% after USAID was dismantled; the US drove about three-quarters of the global decline. Germany, the UK, Japan and France also cut.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5430 Oct 2026
Listed Person · Brazilian senator; runoff candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro

Led the October 4 first round (47.03% to 45.16%) before losing the runoff; seeking annulment.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5530 Oct 2026
Listed Outlet · UK; not included in the Global Media Index

Financial Times

Unscored. Needs specific articles run through the rubric, starting with its coverage of African sovereign derivatives such as Angola's and Nigeria's total.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5630 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Common Framework since 2021

Ethiopia

Reached a debt treatment resolution with China on April 3, 2026.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5730 Oct 2026
Friend Person · US Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs

Erin Browne

Pushing to complete Senegal's Common Framework restructuring in under a year; led the US delegation in Bangkok.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5830 Oct 2026
Friend Issue · Capital flows

EM equity rally and concentration

MSCI EM beat developed markets in 2025, but the top 10 holdings are near a 20-year high of about 39% of the index.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 5930 Oct 2026
Listed Journalist · Reuters, Nairobi

Duncan Miriri

Co-wrote the May 8, 2025 report on JPMorgan's $200 million margin call on Angola's total return swap.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6030 Oct 2026
Mixed Person · President of the United States

Donald Trump

Tariffs, the dismantling of USAID and a remittance tax are tied by analysts to EM headwinds; his administration also expanded the DFC to a $205 billion.

04 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6130 Oct 2026
Mixed Issue · Financing conditions

Dollar and US rates

A weak dollar powered the 2025 EM rally; a steady, hawkish Fed and Treasury yields above 5% now cut the other way.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6230 Oct 2026
Friend Person · President, New Development Bank (BRICS bank)

Dilma Rousseff

Re-elected unanimously for July 7, 2025 to July 6, 2030; bank focuses on local-currency financing for EM infrastructure.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6330 Oct 2026
Friend Company · Lekki, Lagos; 700,000 b/d

Dangote Refinery

Nigeria earned about $750 million from petrol exports in H1 2026, a sixfold rise; Europe took about 130,000 b/d in Q2 2026.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6430 Oct 2026
Listed Person · President of South Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa

Hosted the 2025 G20 in Johannesburg; South Africa is sitting out the 2026 US-run G20 and plans to return under the UK presidency.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6530 Oct 2026
Mixed Issue · China export controls

Critical minerals controls

China's suspension of its October 2025 controls runs to November 10, 2026.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6630 Oct 2026
Mixed Company · Chinese policy banks

China Development Bank / China Exim

Committed more than $472 billion to Global South infrastructure, but net flows have reversed: developing nations now pay China more in debt service than.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6730 Oct 2026
Mixed Country · Largest bilateral creditor to the Global South

China

About 23% of MSCI EM; controls about 91% of rare-earth refining.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6830 Oct 2026
Listed Institution · 11 members and 10 partner countries; 2026 chair India

BRICS

18th summit in New Delhi adopted a joint declaration and launched a BRICS Startup Innovation Fund.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 6930 Oct 2026
Listed Issue · Political risk

Brazil 2026 election

Runoff decided October 25, 2026; the losing candidate's annulment bid is the live risk.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7030 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Latin America's largest economy

Brazil

Lula re-elected October 25, 2026; result contested by the runner-up.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7130 Oct 2026
Mixed Issue · Chinese development finance

Belt and Road lending

Built infrastructure across the Global South, but the Lowy Institute finds China has turned into a net financial drain on developing-country budgets.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7230 Oct 2026
Listed Journalist · Investigative journalist, BIRD.bg (Bulgaria)

Atanas Tchobanov

Wrote BIRD's 2022 investigations into Gemcorp's Bulgarian energy memorandum, alleging links to Russian businessman Albert Avdolyan and citing FinCEN.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7330 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Beijing; 11th Annual Meeting held in Doha, September 28–29, 2026

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

China-headquartered multilateral lender for Asian infrastructure, in its second decade.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7430 Oct 2026
Listed Country · IMF's largest program country

Argentina

Faces almost $20 billion in 2026 debt repayments.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7530 Oct 2026
Listed Country · Oil producer; Gemcorp's main market

Angola

Borrower on a Gemcorp credit line negotiated with the Ministry of Finance in 2016; host of the Cabinda refinery and the Capanda dam rehabilitation.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7630 Oct 2026
Friend Person · Founder, Dangote Group

Aliko Dangote

His 700,000 b/d Lagos refinery turned Nigeria from a fuel importer into an exporter; seaborne product shipments averaged 561,000 b/d in Q2 2026 vs.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7730 Oct 2026
Friend Outlet · Qatar; tied #2 (61%)

Al Jazeera

Singled out with The Guardian, AFP and Reuters for balanced Africa coverage.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7830 Oct 2026
Friend Person · President, World Bank Group (since June 2, 2023)

Ajay Banga

Outlined scaling World Bank crisis support from about $25 billion to up to $100 billion over 15 months in response to the Middle East war shock.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 7930 Oct 2026
Friend Issue · Technology demand

AI capex and the chip cycle

US tech firms plan more than $610 billion in 2026 capex, lifting North Asian chip exporters and broadening to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

02 sourcesOpen file
Case file 8030 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Abidjan

African Development Bank

Africa's main multilateral lender; new leadership is emphasizing capital mobilization.

01 sourcesOpen file
Case file 8130 Oct 2026
Friend Institution · Nonprofit; commissioned the Global Media Index for Africa

Africa No Filter

Led by Moky Makura. Its research estimates Africa may lose up to $4.2 billion a year in inflated interest payments tied to stereotyped coverage.

03 sourcesOpen file
Case file 8230 Oct 2026
Friend Outlet · France; #2 of 20 (61%)

AFP

Covered the widest share of African countries (56%).

02 sourcesOpen file
The Board · Case file